Water Tera SilvieTier 2
at Toronto ALC Regionals
Pilot Skill ↓ low
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Erupting | 13.7% | 3 | 0-3-0 | 0.0% | 28.6% | 31.3% | -14.0 |
| Wind Allies | 13.7% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 33.8% | -15.5 |
| Fire Arcane | 9.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 9.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.9% | +15.8 |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 7.8% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.6% | -15.1 |
| Fire Aggro | 5.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Hybrid | 5.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 5.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 5.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Mage | 3.9% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.0% | +0.0 |
| Water Luxem Assassin | 3.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Dawn of Ashes | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Mage | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Merlin | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Cleric | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Tamer | 2.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.0% | -16.0 |
| Water Umbra Diana | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Ranger | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Tera Silvie | 2.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.9% | -14.6 |
Decklists · 2 from this event
Mirror Analysis
In 1 mirror match, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 1 mirror is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 1 mirror we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 30 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 30 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Song of Frost | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Wildheart Lyre | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Gray Wolf | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Vertus, Gaia's Roar | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Water Resonance Bauble | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Dungeon Guide | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Ordinary Bear | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Blissful Calling | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Snow Fairy | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Blue Slime | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Owl Familiar | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Dewdrop Hares | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Avatar of Gaia | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fracturize | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Meadowbloom Dryad | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Hymn of Gaia's Grace | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Song of Nurturing | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Scavenging Raccoon | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Stalwart Shieldmate | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Capricious Lynx | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Give Bath | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Wind Resonance Bauble | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Freezing Hail | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Tera Sight | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Hypothermia | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Arima, Gaia's Wings | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Tariff Ring | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Gaia's Blessing | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Fractal of Insight | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Ocean's Blessing | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 |